Trump Still Leads in Iowa; Fiorina on Fire; Paul Tanking

This is directly from Public Policy Polling

from August 7th to 9th

For the exact PPP page click HERE :PPP polling Info

 

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican field in the state even after a weekend of controversy. He’s at 19% to 12% for Ben Carson and Scott Walker, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 9% for Ted Cruz, and 6% for Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio.

The other 9 candidates are all clustered between 3% and having no support at all (George Pataki)- John Kasich and Rand Paul are at 3%, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum at 2%, Chris Christie at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, and Pataki all have less than 1%.

“Donald Trump’s public fight with Fox News might hurt him in the long run,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But for the time being he continues to lead the pack.”

PPP last polled Iowa in April and at that time Trump had a 40/40 favorability rating with GOP voters. On this poll his favorability is 46/40, not substantially better than it four months ago. That suggests Trump’s favorability could be back on the way down after peaking sometime in the last few weeks. But at any rate Trump does have the advantage with pretty much every segment of the GOP electorate- he’s up with Evangelicals, men, women, voters in every age group, moderates, voters who are most concerned with having the candidate who is most conservative on the issues, and voters who are most concerned about having a candidate who can win the general election.

The biggest winner coming out of the debate looks to be Carly Fiorina. Her favorability rating is now 56/15, compared to 30/15 when we polled Iowa in April. She was such a nonfactor the last time we polled that we didn’t even bother to include her in the horse race question but now she’s at 10% and in the top 5. Fiorina also ties with Walker as the most frequent 2nd choice of GOP voters at 11%.

Besides Fiorina the only other candidate who seems to have any momentum is Carson. He was at 5% in April and has seen his support go up by 5 points to its new 12% standing. Carson is also the most popular candidate in the field, with a 69/10 favorability rating. That’s up from a 44/15 spread in April.

The biggest loser in the poll is Rand Paul. He now has a negative favorability rating at 31/45. That gives him the worst numbers of anyone in the field, outdistancing even Chris

Christie on the unpopularity front. Paul’s 3% standing represents a drop all the way down from 10% in April. Paul’s been foundering anyway, and his campaign’s ties to the Kent Sorenson mess are probably making things particularly bad for him in Iowa.

Besides Paul the candidate worst off in this poll is Christie. He’s never been strong in Iowa- he was at 5% in April- but now he’s polling in asterisk territory at 1%. Christie’s overall image has actually improved- he’s still unpopular with a 34/44 favorability rating but that’s better than 28/50 in April- but he may be losing voters who value his tough talk style to Trump.

Scott Walker (from 23% to 12%), Marco Rubio (from 13% to 6%), and Mike Huckabee (from 10% to 6%) all saw sizable drops in their support over the last four months. The good news for them though is that they’re still among the most popular candidates in the state, right behind Carson. Rubio’s favorability is 66/15, Huckabee’s is 64/20, and Walker’s is 63/17. Being so well liked positions all of them well to potentially benefit as other candidates falter further down the line. Walker is tied with Fiorina as the most frequent 2nd choice of voters at 11% and Rubio is in double digits on that front as well at 10%. Jeb Bush (12% in April, 11% now) and Ted Cruz (8% in April, 9% now) are both holding pretty steady. And despite his support for the nomination being flat, voters are warming up to Bush some- his 45/32 favorability is an improvement from 38/37 in the spring.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 52% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Martin O’Malley, 3% for Jim Webb, and 1% for Lincoln Chafee. That represents a decent amount of tightening since April- Sanders’ support has increased from 14% to 25%, with Clinton’s dropping correspondingly from 62% to 52%.

It’s not that Democrats are souring on Clinton- her 75/15 favorability rating now is pretty similar to its 78/16 standing in April. But Sanders is definitely catching fire as voters become more familiar with him- his favorability is 61/14, up from 40/16 on the previous poll.

“Bernie Sanders’ growing support has a lot more to do with Bernie Sanders than it does with Hillary Clinton,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Clinton’s as popular as ever but Sanders is proving to have a lot of appeal as he becomes better known.

” Clinton continues to be pretty dominant with ‘somewhat liberal’ voters (57/22), moderates (54/18), women (56/21), and seniors (58/19). The group where it’s closer are ‘very liberal’ voters (49/39), men (47/30), and younger voters (46/31).

Public Policy Polling surveyed 619 usual Republican primary voters and 567 usual Democratic primary voters from August 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the Republicans is +/-3.9% and for the Democrats it’s +/-4.1%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet.